2027: 77% Nigerians intend to vote, but fear insecurity could undermine turnout -Yiaga Africa

Ahead of the 2027 general elections, a new national survey by Yiaga Africa says most Nigerians plan to participate in the forthcoming elections but fear widespread insecurity and lingering distrust in electoral institutions as threats that can undermine actual turnout.

The report signed by the Executive Director of Yiaga Africa, Samson Itodo, shows that while 77 percent of Nigerians say they are likely or very likely to vote in 2027, 42 percent of respondents cite fear of violence as the biggest barrier to voting.

“The challenge for 2027 is ensuring that the 77 percent who want to vote can actually do so safely and with confidence in the process,” the statement said.

The survey, conducted between December 1 and 5, 2025, forms part of Yiaga Africa’s national voter intention surveys, which aim to “test prevailing assumptions about voter interest and participation, while identifying the key drivers and barriers to citizen engagement ahead of the 2027 elections”.

The survey was commissioned by Yiaga Africa and carried out by NOI Polls with support from the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO).

The survey was conducted among 1,500 adult Nigerians across all states and the FCT, with a 95 percent confidence level and a ±4.26 percent margin of error.

The survey noted that while northern Nigeria recorded the highest likelihood to vote, the region also faces some of the most severe security challenges, including insurgency, banditry and communal violence.

It also shows that Nigerians’ voting decisions are increasingly shaped by practical concerns rather than party loyalty.

Security (21 percent) and quality of candidates (21 percent) emerged as the top factors influencing voting intentions, followed by economic conditions (17 percent).

“The fact that Nigerians increasingly vote for candidates rather than parties imposes an obligation on political parties to conduct the 2027 nomination process with transparency, integrity, and without manipulation or excessive commercialization,” the report stated.

On confidence in the electoral process, the organisation said while 76 percent of respondents believe their vote can influence election outcomes, only 45 percent expressed confidence in the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), with 34 percent saying they lack confidence.

Distrust in INEC was found to be stronger in the south-south and south-east than in the northern zones.

The survey also said 67 percent of Nigerians said they were unaware of recent electoral reforms, despite ongoing efforts by INEC and the national assembly.

“Among those aware of electoral reforms, 64 per cent report increased voting confidence, which indicates that electoral reforms deliver results. However, these reforms are undermined by significant communication failures,” the report said.

Yiaga Africa urged security agencies, INEC, the national assembly, political parties, civil society and the media to take urgent steps to address insecurity, rebuild trust and improve voter education ahead of 2027.

It requested that INEC improve the integrity and accuracy of the voter register through the timely revalidation of voter registration records and the cleanup of the voter register, and to conduct targeted confidence-building initiatives in the South-East and South-South zones, as well as to popularise electoral reforms designed to enhance the integrity of the electoral process.

The study urged political parties to foster the emergence of high-quality candidates through the conduct of transparent, accountable, and credible party primaries, as well as issue-based campaigns that address voter priorities, including security, the economy, and governance.

It urged civil society to focus voter mobilisation on youth, women, and low-income groups, who tend to show lower engagement, and to provide citizens with oversight of candidate nomination processes in the 2027 elections.

While urging security agencies to deploy comprehensive election security frameworks in high-risk zones to neutralize early warning threats ahead of party congresses and primaries; the survey also urged them to establish community-based security approaches leveraging local leadership.

The report said, “National Assembly (should) conclude the passage of the electoral bill by January 2026 to provide legal certainty for the 2027 elections. Political Parties (should) ensure the emergence of high-quality candidates through the conduct of transparent, accountable and credible party primaries; and conduct issue-based campaigns addressing voter priorities: security, economy, and governance.”