MTEF 2026-2028 and FGN Budget Call Circular: Matters Arising

By Eze Onyekpere

The media reported last week that the Federal Government has forwarded the 2026-2028 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) to the National Assembly (NASS) for approval. There is also a document dated December 2025 on the website of the Budget Office of the Federation (BOF) titled “FGN 2026 Abridged Budget Call Circular”.

This discourse focuses on the content of the two documents, the law and policy framework guiding them, their availability in the public space and other related matters.

Timing
The first issue is the timing of the MTEF and the Budget Call Circular. By S.14 of the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA), the Minister shall before the end of the second quarter of each financial year, present the Medium-Term Expenditure Framework to the Federal Executive Council for consideration and endorsement.

This clearly states that the MTEF should have been endorsed by the FEC by the end of June and forwarded to NASS in July for their approval. The MTEF is the foundation policy planning documentation for the preparation of the annual budget. Presenting same for the approval of NASS in the second week of December is an inexcusable failure.

The Call Circular comes immediately after the MTEF has been approved. Ideally, it is expected that the MTEF should be approved by NASS before they embark on their mid- year vacation. This implies that the MTEF should be approved between late July and early August to enable MDA budget preparation and bilateral discussions to proceed thereafter.

Transparency and Citizens Participation
The second issue is the challenge of transparency and citizens participation. The FEC endorsed MTEF is not available in any electronic portal of the BOF or the executive in general. Also, NASS has not uploaded it to any portal where citizens will have free access. Furthermore, there was no consultation with any citizens groups before the executive endorsed the MTEF.

But the FRA in S.13 mandated the Minister in preparing the draft MTEF, to hold public consultations, on the Macro-economic Framework, the Fiscal Strategy Paper, the Revenue and Expenditure Framework, the strategic, economic, social and developmental priorities of government, and such other matters as the Minister deems necessary; provided that, such consultations shall be open to the public, the press and any citizen or authorized representatives of any organization, group of citizens, who may attend and be heard on any subject matter properly in view.

A visit by a staff of the Centre for Social Justice to the BOF to get the endorsed MTEF met officials who bluntly refused to release same arguing that it would not be released to the public until after the approval by NASS.

This raises the poser whether staff and the management of BOF have ever read the FRA which should be the equivalent of a scripture in their day to day work. Should leadership be in disobedience of the law or is it ignorance or negligence of leadership?

This appears to be impunity writ large. For the FRA in S.48 (1) was unambiguous when it stated that the Federal Government shall ensure that its fiscal and financial affairs are conducted in a transparent manner and accordingly ensure full and timely disclosure and wide publication of all transactions and decisions involving public revenues and expenditures and their implications for its finances.

Media reports indicate that NASS handed the MTEF to a committee with the mandate to report back by December 17th 2025. In their usual tradition, they have invited key fiscal officials to explain the contents and provide more clarity. It was reported that the Senate approved the MTEF on December 16th 2025. There was no opportunity for citizens and stakeholders’ input.

Let it be clearly and unequivocally stated that approving the MTEF for the FGN in a matter of less than seven working days after submission is clearly not enough time for an empirical and meticulous consideration of the MTEF. It is like the “bow and go” system of approval based on the mandate song which majority of NASS members of the All Progressives Congress stand.

The MTEF as presented needs interrogation before approval and this requires the inputs of bodies and persons outside of the NASS whose competencies are relevant for the approval of a realistic and developmental MTEF to guide 2026 budgeting. The figures reported to have been approved do not inspire confidence and credibility.

This discourse now turns to content issues.
Rollover of 70% of 2025 Capital Votes: The Call Circular states MDAs are to upload 70% of their 2025 FGN Budget to continue in FY 2026. All such rollover and uploads MUST be in line with the immediate needs of the country as well as government’s development priorities that aligns with the policy direction of the new administration which hinges on National Security, the Economy, Education, Health, Agriculture, Infrastructure, Power & Energy as well as social safety nets, women & youth empowerment.

This provision is outside the contemplation of the 1999 Constitution and the FRA. This raises the posers – why are we rolling over? Why was the 2025 capital budget not implemented? By S.27 of the FRA, the sums appropriated for a specific purpose shall be used solely for the purpose specified in the Appropriation Act. Spending them on non-budgeted projects may amount to an impeachable offence.

Information available in the media from the Minister of Finance indicates that only about N10.7trillion of the expected N40.8trn would be realised for the year 2025. Therefore, little or nothing has been done on the 2025 capital budget in terms of implementation.

The FGN states that it is still working on a commitment to release 30% of the capital votes before the end of the year as it sets MDAs 2026 capital ceiling at 70% of the 2025 budget. As shall be shown later, this excuse of a mere N10trn revenue runs against the hard-cold facts of revenue accretion and borrowing.

FGN Revenue Realised in 2025
If the annexure in Table A attached to the Call Circular is the guide, FGN has a lot of explanation to give on the failure to implement 2025 capex. It will be recalled that the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in a release on September 2, 2025 by Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to the President, (Information and Strategy) told Nigerians that the targets for the full year revenue has been met in August 2025 and is about being surpassed.

It was later corrected to refer to non-oil revenue. See: https://statehouse.gov.ng/president-tinubu-nigeria-hit-revenue-target-for-2025-in-august/. The 2025 fiscal framework in Annex A shows that non-oil taxes was projected at N8.449 trillion. The share of oil revenue was projected at N21trn for the year and other revenue sources made up the N40.8trn. Pray, is FGN stating that after hitting N8.4trn in non-oil revenue in August, all other sources of revenue combined produced (or will yield) a paltry N2.3trn for the whole year to make up the N10.7trn the minister claimed would be realized as revenue. Or the other sums realized in non-oil revenue from September to end November 2025 have not altogether surpassed N10trn?

The FGN has inundated Nigerian with stories of increased revenue generation. N8.4trn in eight months averages N1.05trn in a month. And N1.05trn for three months (September, October, November 2025) is an additional N3.15trn. When added to N8.4trn realized in the first eight months amounts to N11.55trn for non-oil revenue alone. So, what happened to the other expected revenue sources? Nothing realised?

However, from the MTEF document (which the author eventually got on Wednesday December 17th, 2025), it is reported that the actual aggregate FGN revenue between January to July 2025 is in the sum of N13.665trn including the revenue of Government Owned Enterprises (GOEs) or N12.362trn excluding GOEs. From the foregoing analysis, it can be stated emphatically without any doubt that FGN realized more revenue than reported in the media and attributed to the Minister of Finance.

If this was the figure realized between January to July, definitely more revenue had accrued for August, September, October and November 2025 which was not brought into the reporting of the MTEF. It is also imperative to note that reported revenue excludes revenue accruing from internal and external borrowing. And the administration has been borrowing as if incurring debts is a best practice worthy of deepening.

From the MTEF document, it is reported that FGN projected retained revenue excluding GOEs in 2024 was N23.015trn while the actual came to N19.879trn being a performance of 86.38%. So, the poser is; what suddenly changed in 2025 leading to the steep decline in revenue accretion at a time the administration claims to be blocking and leakages and boasting that more revenue has accrued? The stories are not adding up. The administration needs to come clean with the truth.
Where is the Savings from fuel subsidy?

For so many years, FGN and analysts had projected that removal of fuel subsidy will free up resources in the neighbourhood of N6trn to N8trn at the Federation Account available for sharing by the three tiers of government. And the FGN would get about 50% of the saved sum. Why is the Finance Minister still reporting N10.8trn in federal revenue after the removal of fuel subsidy? The stories and figures are not adding up.

Way forward
If Nigeria can still boast of a proper and functional NASS, the members and leadership should ask the President and Finance Minister to present a proper account of revenue and expenditure for 2025. What they have so far presented is a contradictory maze of figures that is bereft of any iota of credibility.