Political violence threatens Nigeria’s 2027 elections, CentreSGD warns

The African Centre for Security, Governance and Development (CentreSGD) has raised the alarm over escalating political violence across the country, warning that attacks on political candidates, supporters and campaign activities could undermine the credibility of the 2027 general elections.

The organisation said the growing wave of violence, intimidation and alleged abuse of state power was creating an atmosphere of fear capable of discouraging Nigerians from participating in the electoral process.

In a statement signed by its Executive Director, Theresa Chigozirim Odinkalu-Okoro, CentreSGD said at least 70 physical election-related attacks were recorded in 19 states and the Federal Capital Territory between January 1 and October 27, 2026.

Citing the CLEEN Foundation’s Election Security Threat Assessment, the organisation said 20 of the incidents resulted in 27 deaths, describing the development as a serious threat to Nigeria’s democratic process.

It also cited a September 2026 survey by Yiaga Africa, which found that 61 per cent of Nigerians feared violence could prevent them from voting in the forthcoming elections, with the figure rising to 78 per cent in the North-East.

The organisation warned that the situation was particularly troubling as political campaigns gathered momentum ahead of the presidential and National Assembly elections scheduled for January 16, 2027, and the governorship and State Houses of Assembly polls slated for February 6.

It said campaign rallies, party offices and political gatherings had increasingly become targets of attacks, turning activities ordinarily associated with democratic participation into security risks.

Citing recent incidents, CentreSGD listed attacks on supporters of the Nigeria Democratic Congress in Enugu on October 10, where gunshots were reportedly fired outside the party’s state secretariat during its governorship campaign flag-off, leaving one supporter dead.

It also recalled attacks on convoys of All Progressives Congress supporters in Malumfashi and Yankara, Katsina State, on October 28 and 31, respectively, during which vehicles were reportedly damaged or burnt and several people injured.

In Ekiti State, the organisation cited the October 30 attack on the presidential candidate of the African Action Congress, Omoyele Sowore, and members of his entourage at a restaurant in Ado-Ekiti.

It further listed allegations by the African Democratic Congress governorship candidate in Sokoto State that personnel of state-owned security outfits attacked his convoy near the Sultan Abubakar III International Airport.

The organisation also condemned reported attacks on ADC campaign convoys in Kebbi State on November 5, including that of the party’s presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar.

Although some of the allegations have been disputed by the authorities and political actors concerned, CentreSGD called for comprehensive investigations, insisting that nobody responsible for electoral violence should escape justice on account of political affiliation.

It acknowledged police announcements of arrests in connection with the Katsina and Ekiti incidents but urged the authorities to ensure that investigations resulted in transparent prosecutions.

The organisation expressed concern that the growing insecurity could discourage particularly young Nigerians, women and persons with disabilities from exercising their voting rights.

According to the Yiaga Africa survey, 84 per cent of respondents indicated that they were likely or very likely to vote in 2027, while 83 per cent said improved security would make them more willing to participate.

However, only 40 per cent of young respondents were very likely to vote, compared with 64 per cent of those aged 61 and above.

CentreSGD warned that allowing political violence to persist could further weaken voter confidence and deepen public apathy.

It also raised concerns over allegations that state-linked security outfits and administrative machinery were being deployed to restrict opposition activities, including the sealing of the ADC’s state office in Sokoto, which the state government reportedly attributed to an ownership dispute.

The organisation said the Nigeria Civil Society Situation Room had also warned about the shrinking political space and alleged abuse of incumbency.

It further questioned the reported imposition of exorbitant campaign billboard permit fees, allegedly reaching N200m in Abia State and N150m in Enugu, Kogi and Cross River states.

While some state governments reportedly defended the charges as administrative fees applicable to all political parties, CentreSGD insisted that such allegations required open scrutiny to guarantee a level playing field.

The organisation called on the Nigeria Police Force and other security agencies to investigate all election-related attacks promptly and impartially, while ensuring that both perpetrators and sponsors were prosecuted regardless of their political connections.

It also urged political party leaders and candidates to publicly condemn violent conduct, enforce internal discipline and ensure that peace commitments were respected by their supporters.

CentreSGD further called on the Independent National Electoral Commission and the Inter-Agency Consultative Committee on Election Security to publish a comprehensive, threat-based national election security plan and strengthen protection around campaign venues and electoral infrastructure.

It urged state governments to guarantee equal access to public facilities, campaign venues, permits and advertising platforms, warning against the use of administrative and security powers to frustrate political opponents.

The organisation said, “Democracy cannot thrive in an environment governed by fear. Elections should be a contest of ideas and popular mandate, not a test of physical force or armed coercion.

“If this surge in violence goes unaddressed, it will undermine the legitimacy of the 2027 polls before a single ballot is cast.”

It called on international partners, civil society organisations and domestic election monitoring groups to intensify surveillance and documentation of electoral violence in the months leading to the elections.